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Sunday, October 28, 2012

Turkey and Iran on the brink of war


The rift between Turkey and Iran widened on Tuesday, August 7th, when the Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces threatened that "Turkey will be next in line for violence after Syria if it continues to work on behalf of Western interests. Ankara is toeing the Western (American) line in the region, like Saudi Arabia and Qatar. They are therefore accountable for the bloodshed in the Arab Republic [Syria]".

Tehran is also holding the US responsible for the lives of the 48 Iranian hostages whom Syrian rebels threaten to execute unless the Syrian army stops shelling Aleppo.
The US, Saudi Arabia and Qatar should know that the responsibility for the outbreak of war with Turkey will be on their shoulders. This is a further step in the deterioration of relations between Turkey and Iran.
Bashar al-Assad is fighting for his life and for the future of the Alawites and is searching for allies that can help him. Lately, he approached the Syrian Kurds and offered to withdraw the army from their towns and villages, and even grant them autonomy, as long as they pull out of the fight against him. This is a brilliant move, because the Kurds are the weakest link in the rebel coalition, and their withdrawal would inflict much damage on the rebellion. The agreement was accepted, Assad's army has left the Kurdish territories and the Kurds have been given control over most of their cities and over the border with Turkey (this is Turkey's longest border). To the Turks' horror, the Kurdish rebels have begun to hoist the PKK flag (the Kurdish underground in Turkey) in all the Kurdish territories in Syria and are not hiding their wish to found an independent Kurdish State or region, as they have done in Iraq.
This is a nightmare for Turkey and Erdoĝan, because now the Kurdish underground will be able to carry out attacks not only from the relatively short border with Iraq, but also from the Syrian border, which is completely open. The Turkish army has deployed forces along the border with Syria, however this is a very long and open border and it is hard to defend, especially when it is so close to Kurdish population centers in Turkey. This is Assad's revenge on Erdoĝan for supporting the rebels and for making a significant effort to topple him.
Erdoĝan is considering an invasion of Syria in order to create a buffer zone that would protect the rebels, similar to what NATO did in Libya at the time, eventually bringing around Gaddafi's demise. But this is where the Turkish nightmare gets worse: Iran, being aware of the implications of a buffer zone, has sent a stern message to the Turks (exposed by the Syrian "Alwattan" newspaper) that if Turkey dares to cross the border into Syria, it would retaliate against Turkey with great force and would even activate the Syrian-Iranian defense alliance of 2008. This is another blow for Turkey, which puts the Turkish Foreign Minister, Davutoĝlu's policy in an ironic and even ridiculous light, after talking about a "zero conflict" policy, only a few years ago.
Turkey's situation is worsening daily, because the Kurds have been growing stronger within Syria as well as in their ties to the Kurdish enclaves in the neighboring countries. Now Iraq has also warned Turkey not to continue bombing the Kurds in Iraq, and threatened retaliation if Turkey does not comply. The Iraqis are coordinating with Iran and thus narrowing Turkey's room to maneuver.
The cessation of military relations between Turkey and Israel following the Mavi-Marmara incident seems to be a serious mistake on the part of Turkey, which has become more and more isolated.





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